On August 27th, 2025, The Keystone Research Center released its annual “State of Working Pennsylvania” report. A PDF Copy is available here.
Links to Report Materials:
Report PDF | Press Conference Recording | Press Presentation Slides | Press Release
Key Findings
- U.S. GDP shrank in the first quarter of 2025 and PA output growth flatlined. GDP growth in the last six months remained half the rate of a year earlier.
- U.S. jobs grew 0.3% in the first seven months of 2025, only half as much as a year ago. Counter to national trends, Pennsylvania job growth improved in the first six months of 2025 – to 0.7% from 0.4% compared to a year earlier – and exceeded the U.S. job growth rate.
- Layoffs of federal employees this year contributed to slower job growth. Pennsylvania had an estimated 2,600 fewer federal jobs in July than in January, a drop of 2.5%.
- Unemployment rates over the past year ticked up in the United States and more so in Pennsylvania. Unemployment rates rose sharply for workers of color.
- Hiring rates and quit rates both fell in the last year, indicators of a labor market in which individual workers have less leverage.
- Average hourly earnings in Pennsylvania peaked in March 2025, and rose from December 2024 to July 2025 at only just above half the rate of a year earlier.
Both economists and consumers feel nervous about the future.
- Federal Reserve economists’ projections for 2025 and 2026 all deteriorated since September 2024, with inflation in 2025 now projected at 3% instead of 2.1%.
- Consumer confidence dipped sharply in the first part of 2025 and, despite a rebound in June and July, remains well below the level at the end of 2024.