MEMO
_____________________________________________________________________________________
To: Editorial Page Editors and Other Media
From: Stephen Herzenberg, economist and executive director, Keystone Research Center (KRC)
Subject: Resources on the Performance of the Pennsylvania Economy
To arrange interviews with KRC researchers or request KRC assistance accessing additional data, contact John Neurohr, Jr. at jneurohr@clearpointpa.com; 717-364-6452)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Because of the upcoming elections, there’s a lot of interest in the Pennsylvania economy and how it’s performing for Pennsylvanian workers. For that reason, Keystone Research Center (KRC) has created a “Pennsylvania Economy Resource Page” that puts at the fingertips of members of the media the latest Pennsylvania economic data. This memo summarizes the information you can find on this resource page and what it tells us about Pennsylvania’s economy.
County-Level Unemployment, Employment, and Wage Data and Maps
The top of the resource page has the latest county-level unemployment, employment, and wage data compared to before the pandemic, the time period when the economy performed best under President Trump. These county-level data allow national and state reporters to “localize” their stories about the economy’s performance. You will find a table and downloadable Excel file with the actual numbers on unemployment, jobs and wages, and three maps with the county level changes in unemployment, employment, and wages.
- Unemployment: The unemployment rate in PA is lower now in every county than before the pandemic. Unemployment has fallen most in western and rural PA, in some cases by 4 percentage points. Because low unemployment gives workers leverage, the current job market is the best for PA workers when they bargain with employers, individually or collectively, since the early 1970s.
- Employment: Two thirds of counties (43) have seen job growth since just before the pandemic, with faster growth in the eastern half of the state which also has faster population growth.
- Wages: Forty-four counties have seen average weekly wage growth since before the pandemic, including most counties in the lower geographic three-quarters of the state.
Economic Analysis for Pennsylvania as a Whole
The next part of the resource page has links to KRC’s late-August statewide economy analysis, The State of Working Pennsylvania 2024, and other materials related to that report. This year’s report finds that the recent strength of the Pennsylvania economy shows up in multiple economic indicators. For example:
- In the last four years, our state’s job growth has hummed along at roughly the level of US job growth, instead of our more typical half of US job growth.
- It took only years after the short pandemic recession (in March and April 2020) for Pennsylvania’s number of non-farm jobs to pass the pre-pandemic peak—thanks in large part to pandemic relief policies passed under both President Trump and President Biden. After the Great Recession ended in June 2009, it took over 6 years for PA to recover to the pre-recession jobs peak.
- For the past 26 months, PA’s unemployment rate has been below its rate in any month from Jan. 1976 to Feb. 2020. (Note: the current monthly state unemployment database began in Jan. 1976.)
- Unemployment for Blacks and Hispanics has fallen to within 2-to-3 percentage points of white unemployment.
- Wages have grown faster than inflation in the last 5-10 years for almost all groups of PA workers.
- Hourly wages for typical (median-wage) PA workers rose 83 cent in 2023 (in 2023 dollars) and $2.99 in the past decade. The PA median wage is now about a dollar more per hour more than the US median, just like before the steel industry collapse.
- Women, Black, and Hispanic workers saw steady wage increases over the past decade—nearly $2 to $3 per hour—and recent gains relative to male and white workers.
- PA low-wage workers (at the 10th percentile) make $2.22 more per hour than a decade ago (a 21% increase), albeit still $1.71 less 10th percentile workers in NY, NJ, and MD, where the state legislature has enacted a $15 per hour minimum wage.
Our resource page also links to bite-size blogs on separate topics in the State of Working PA 2024:
- Unions blog (PA private union membership in the broad service sector grew from 215,000 to 280,000 in 2023 alone).
- Inflation blog (US inflation in the past 12 months is back down to 2.5%).
- Jobs blog (a chart shows PA compared to US job growth).
- Unemployment blog (with the details on PA’s historically low unemployment rates and a chart showing the PA unemployment rate dropping below the US rate).
Keep your eye on the KRC blog because we’ll upload additional blogs in the next several weeks.
Report on the Economic Performance of the Economy by Presidential Administration
Two 2024 reports analyze US and PA economic performance based on which party holds the White House.
- A national report from the Economic Policy Institute, published April 10, shows that the US economy performed better under Democratic Presidents than Republican on all 11 indicators examined since 1949 and all 12 indicators examined in the shorter period since 1981.
- A PA report from KRC partially replicates the EPI analysis using PA data. We found that the PA economy performed better under Democratic Presidents on five of six indicators examined.
Pennsylvania Deserve to Know the Facts Regarding the State’s Economic Performance
The economy’s actual economic performance does not always drive how individual working families “feel” about the economy. Those perceptions are also driven by other factors, including the economy’s past performance (e.g., 35 years of unequal growth after 1980), media and social media narratives that aim to convince people the economy is doing well or poorly, and the circumstances of individual workers and their families. But a central role of balanced media organizations is to accurately report the facts on economic performance. As noted at the top of this memo, for interviews or to request KRC researchers’ help finding additional data, please contact John Neurohr, Jr. at jneurohr@clearpointpa.com; 717-364-6452.