HARRISBURG – The Keystone Research Center (KRC) today released a policy brief examining whether Pennsylvania’s economy does better under Democrats or Republicans, finding all but one of key economic indicators perform better when Democrats control the White House. The brief uses economic indicators such as Real GDP since 1998, Unemployment rate and Employment growth starting in 1976, PA Real Wages beginning in 1979, and PA Median Household Income from 1984. The KRC brief sought to replicate as much as possible with readily available data an Economic Policy Institute brief from April which showed the national economy performing better on average since 1949 to 1954 on all 11 indicators examined.
“In a world full of invented claims, we wanted folks to have the facts regarding how well the Pennsylvania economy performs under Republican and Democratic presidents,” said KRC economist and executive director, Dr. Stephen Herzenberg.
The policy brief comes at a time when economic concerns are at the forefront of public discourse. According to a Spring 2024 Gallup poll, more than half of Americans reported worrying “a great deal” about the economy, underscoring the importance of understanding the factors that influence economic performance.
Key findings from the brief include:
- Pennsylvania’s Real GDP growth rate averaged 1.9% under Democratic administrations compared to 1.3% under Republican presidencies from 1998 to 2023, indicating stronger overall economic growth during Democratic terms.
- The unemployment rate in Pennsylvania was 0.3% lower on average during Democratic presidential terms since 1976, potentially translating to hundreds of thousands more Pennsylvanians finding employment.
- Employment growth in the state more than doubled under Democratic administrations (0.75%) compared to Republican ones (0.36%) since 1976, suggesting more robust job creation during Democratic presidencies.
- Republicans had a small advantage on one indicator: real median wage growth under Republican presidents has average 0.48% per under Republicans since 1979 and 0.33% under Democrats.
- Real wage growth for workers at the 10th percentile, by contrast, was higher during Democratic administrations (0.41% annually) compared to Republican ones (0.16%), indicating greater wage gains for lower-income workers.
- And real median household income growth was also substantially higher under Democratic presidents (1.9%) than Republican ones (0.8%) from 1984 to 2019, pointing to improved financial well-being for middle-class families.
The KRC brief also includes a box which summarizes the findings of the Economic Policy Institute brief analyzing national economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents.